2027 Social Security COLA and wage base (projected)

Quick answer

The 2027 Social Security COLA is projected at 3.5%, according to The Senior Citizens League, compared with 2.8% for 2026. Other forecasts range from 3.2% to 3.5%. The increase starts with benefits paid in January 2027.

The maximum earnings subject to Social Security tax is projected to be $190,200 in 2027, up from $184,500. The standard Medicare Part B premium, usually deducted from benefits, is projected to be $209.50 a month, up from $202.90.

2026 vs 2027 at a glance

Projection from the 2026 Trustees Report (intermediate assumptions). Projection from the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report.

The 2027 earnings-test limits, SSI payment amounts and the earnings needed for a work credit come out in the same SSA fact sheet as the COLA. We haven't found reliable projections for them, so we'll add them when they're published.

COLA forecasts compared

The Senior Citizens League lowered its estimate from 3.6% in August to 3.5% in September, after annual inflation for wage earners (CPI-W) came in at 3.5% for August (ConsumerAffairs). Earlier COLAs for comparison: 3.2% for 2024, 2.5% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026.

What it means for an average benefit

The average retired-worker benefit was about $2,083 a month in July 2026 (The Motley Fool). Here's what a 3.5% COLA would do to it:

$2,083 × 3.5% = $72.91 more a month

New benefit about $2,155.91 a month, or about $875 more over the year. SSA rounds monthly payments down to the whole dollar.

If the projected Part B premium increase of $6.60 is taken out of the same check, the net raise is about $66.31 a month. At the lowest forecast (3.2%), the gross raise would be $66.66 a month instead. Your own increase is your benefit times the COLA; your annual SSA notice, usually in December, shows the exact amount.

Wage base: what it means for workers

Employees pay 6.2% Social Security tax on wages up to the wage base; earnings above it aren't taxed for Social Security (Medicare tax has no cap). At the projected 2027 wage base, the most an employee can pay is $11,792.40, compared with $11,439.00 in 2026, a rise of $353.40. Self-employed people pay both halves (12.4%), so their maximum rises by twice that. Only people earning more than $184,500 pay more because of this change.

The wage base follows the national average wage index, not the COLA. That's why it can rise by a different percentage. To see Social Security and Medicare tax on your own pay, use the paycheck calculator.

How the COLA is calculated

The COLA equals the increase in the average consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September, compared with the same three months a year earlier. That's why the official number can't be set until the September inflation report is out. If prices don't rise, there's no COLA, and benefits don't go down.

Retirees still working, or planning around a raise, can check the effect on a monthly budget with the budget calculator. If a COLA raises your taxable income, the W-4 calculator and tax refund calculator help with withholding, and the 401(k) paycheck calculator helps if you're still saving at work.

Common questions

When will the official 2027 COLA be announced?

The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the 2027 COLA and wage base on October 14, 2026, at about 8:30 a.m. ET, with the September inflation report. Medicare usually announces the Part B premium in mid-November.

When will I see the higher payment?

The COLA applies to benefits for December 2026, which are paid in January 2027. SSI recipients usually see it in the payment made at the end of December 2026.

Is the COLA the same for everyone?

The percentage is the same for everyone who gets Social Security or SSI. The dollar amount depends on your benefit: multiply your monthly benefit by the COLA.

Will the Medicare premium eat up my raise?

For most people, no. The projected Part B increase is $6.60 a month. A "hold harmless" rule also stops the Part B increase from lowering most people's net Social Security payment. Higher earners pay more for Part B.

Why do COLA forecasts differ?

Each forecaster makes its own guess about September inflation, and some update more often. Once September's numbers are out, the COLA is simple arithmetic, so the forecasts and the official figure usually end up close.

Does the wage base affect my benefit?

Indirectly. Earnings up to the wage base count toward your future benefit, so high earners have a bit more earnings counted. Most workers earn below it and aren't affected.

Sources

1. 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet — Social Security Administration. Accessed October 14, 2026. Published October 2025.
2. Social Security's 2027 COLA is now projected at 3.5% (The Senior Citizens League) — ConsumerAffairs. Accessed October 14, 2026. Published September 14, 2026.
3. Social Security 2027 wage base projected to be $190,200 — Bloomberg Tax. Accessed October 14, 2026. Published June 10, 2026.
4. Medicare report estimates future Part B premiums. What will you pay in 2027 and beyond? — MOAA. Accessed October 14, 2026. Published June 17, 2026.
5. 2027 Social Security COLA forecasts from AARP, CRFB and The Senior Citizens League — KUTV. Accessed October 14, 2026. Published August 13, 2026.
6. 2027 Social Security COLA will be announced Oct. 14: here's the number to expect (The Motley Fool) — Nasdaq. Accessed October 14, 2026. Published September 22, 2026.